Fantasy fund manager: trade deals and tariff certainty help markets
Uncertainty around geopolitical events can’t stop the rally.
Global markets generally performed well in July, boosting our contestants’ holdings and increasing their fantasy profits.
Markets were volatile at times due to President Trump’s ongoing tariff threats and trade deals, but Japan’s trade agreement eased concerns. The FTSE 100 made a series of record highs and closed the month up around 4%.
The US continues to see profits driven by big tech, which performed well in July, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices finish in positive territory. Europe, too, held up surprisingly well, helped by the trade deal announced between the EU and the US.
So, after seven months, how are our contestants doing?
Journalist | Portfolio gain (%) | Value of £10,000 |
|---|---|---|
| Rosie Murray-West | 20.96 | £12,096 |
| James Baxter-Derrington | 12.54 | £11,254 |
| Moira O'Neill | 10.31 | £11,031 |
| Kyle Caldwell | 4.90 | £10,490 |
| Cherry Reynard | 0.62 | £10,062 |
| Ian Cowie | -4.68 | £9,532 |
Source: theaic.co.uk / Morningstar. Share price total return from 31/12/24 to 31/07/25
Top portfolio returns
Only one of our fantasy investors is yet to break into profit. Although Ian Cowie is a hugely successful long-term investor, his portfolio return of -4.68% shows that investing is not a short-term game. Investors in the real world need to take a five to ten year view when committing money to the stock market.
That said, it is possible to make money over the shorter term if luck (and a bit of good judgement) are on your side.
Rosie Murray-West remains on top, with total portfolio returns of almost 21% in the seven months to 31 July, still comfortably ahead of the Daily Telegraph’s James Baxter-Derrington, with a gain of 12.54% over the same period. He has seen his portfolio jump in value thanks largely to his holding in Fidelity China Special Situations, which saw its shares rise by over 13% in July alone and which is up 31.8% in the year to date.
Moira O’Neill is hot on James’s heels after a very solid month, with two of her holdings rising by over 10% in July, and her other two trusts both gaining as well.
Kyle Caldwell from interactive Investor and freelancer Cherry Reynard have some catching up to do, but as the past seven months have shown, anything can happen, especially with the current geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
Top investment trusts
The standout investment trust in any of our contestants’ portfolios is Gresham House Energy Storage, which is now up by 74.73% year to date, and by 2.17% in July. It is having a storming year as it has become a popular choice for investors looking to renewable energy infrastructure and its future potential.
Last month’s best performing trust was Fidelity China Special Situations, up 13.17%, held by James Baxter-Derrington.
Next was Kyle Caldwell’s pick, RTW Biotech Opportunities, with a gain of 12.75% in July. International Biotechnology Trust, held by Moira O’Neill, rose by 11.96%, while Chrysalis Investments, the growth capital trust held by Baxter-Derrington, rose by a fraction over 11%. Finally, Polar Capital Technology and Edinburgh Worldwide were both up by a little under 11% – the latter helping Ian Cowie regain a little lost ground.
| Journalist | Investment trust | AIC sector | Share price total return (%) 1 month to 31/07/25 | Share price total return (%) YTD to 31/07/25 | Value of holding as at 31/07/25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosie Murray-West | Brown Advisory US Smaller Companies | North American Smaller Companies | 4.33 | -5.36 | £2,366 |
| Canadian General Investments | North America | 6.39 | 0.14 | £2,504 | |
| Gresham House Energy Storage Fund | Renewable Energy Infrastructure | 2.17 | 74.73 | £4,368 | |
| Polar Capital Global Financials | Financials & Financial Innovation | 4.59 | 14.32 | £2,858 | |
| Total portfolio | 4.37 | 20.96 | £12,096 | ||
| James Baxter-Derrington | Chrysalis | Growth Capital | 11.01 | 12.04 | £2,801 |
| Fidelity China Special Situations | China / Greater China | 13.17 | 31.80 | £3,295 | |
| JP Morgan American | North America | 6.07 | -3.20 | £2,420 | |
| Mercantile Investment Trust | UK All Companies | -0.39 | 9.53 | £2,738 | |
| Total portfolio | 7.46 | 12.54 | £11,254 | ||
| Moira O'Neill | City of London Investment Trust | UK Equity Income | 2.84 | 19.12 | £2,978 |
| Henderson Smaller Companies | UK Smaller Companies | 2.19 | 10.24 | £2,756 | |
| International Biotechnology Trust | Biotechnology & Healthcare | 11.96 | -3.47 | £2,413 | |
| Polar Capital Technology | Technology & Technology Innovation | 10.59 | 15.35 | £2,884 | |
| Total portfolio | 6.90 | 10.31 | £11,031 | ||
| Kyle Caldwell | Alliance Witan | Global | 4.75 | 4.06 | £2,601 |
| Fidelity Special Values | UK All Companies | 2.71 | 22.44 | £3,061 | |
| Personal Assets Trust | Flexible Investment | 0.99 | 3.71 | £2,593 | |
| RTW Biotech Opportunities | Biotechnology & Healthcare | 12.75 | -10.62 | £2,235 | |
| Total portfolio | 5.30 | 4.90 | £10,490 | ||
| Cherry Reynard | Diverse Income Trust | UK Equity Income | 0.00 | 17.37 | £2,934 |
| JP Morgan US Smaller Companies | North American Smaller Companies | 4.69 | -14.85 | £2,129 | |
| Polar Capital Global Healthcare | Biotechnology & Healthcare | 0.00 | -4.01 | £2,400 | |
| Renewables Infrastructure Group | Renewable Energy Infrastructure | -3.41 | 3.98 | £2,600 | |
| Total portfolio | 0.32 | 0.62 | £10,062 | ||
| Ian Cowie | Alliance Witan | Global | 4.75 | 4.06 | £2,601 |
| Edinburgh Worldwide | Global Smaller Companies | 10.87 | -1.44 | £2,464 | |
| India Capital Growth | India/Indian Subcontinent | 3.45 | -6.49 | £2,338 | |
| JP Morgan US Smaller Companies | North American Smaller Companies | 4.69 | -14.85 | £2,129 | |
| Total portfolio | 5.94 | -4.68 | £9,532 | ||
All data to 31 July 2025. The information and trust selections are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or personal recommendations. The opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and not of the AIC. You should not make investment decisions based solely on this information and you should seek independent financial advice to identify investments that suit your own personal circumstances and needs. See our full terms of use.
Nick Gardner
Nick Gardner is an award-winning financial journalist. He is former Business and Personal Finance Editor of the Sunday and Daily Telegraph in Sydney, and Deputy Money editor of The Sunday Times in London. He was also Head of Content at Brewin Dolphin, the wealth manager.
