Fantasy fund manager: conflict hits returns but there’s safety in space
See how our contestants’ portfolios have been hit by the conflict in Iran.
It’s unsurprising that a war that threatens a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies has had a profound impact on global stock markets. Markets have been rattled and many investors will be nursing some losses over the past month.
Reassuringly, however, if history is any guide, stock markets tend to rebound quickly once a conflict has concluded, or even when peace is in sight. But markets can be difficult to predict in the meantime, as several of the industry’s most experienced trust managers explained to the AIC last month.
During recent weeks, a few themes have emerged. First, trusts that invest in unlisted assets that are not priced on a daily basis have seen share values hold up relatively well, while those funds that are fully exposed to the knee-jerk selling of public markets have been much harder hit.
We’ve also seen trusts investing in regions subject to energy shortages caused by the stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz suffer worse than others. This includes many Asian emerging markets, Europe and the UK. Meanwhile, gold appears to have lost its safe haven status, suffering its worst monthly price decline in 17 years. That has had obvious impacts on commodities and mining funds. So how has it all impacted our leaderboard?
Journalist | Portfolio gain (%) | Value of £10,000 |
|---|---|---|
Jeff Prestridge | 4.54 | £10,454 |
Peter Higgins | -0.52 | £9,949 |
Moira O'Neil | -1.94 | £9,806 |
Holly Mead | -3.54 | £9,646 |
Gavin Lumsden | -3.85 | £9,616 |
Lynn Beattie | -4.28 | £9,572 |
Source: theaic.co.uk / Morningstar. Share price total return from 01/01/26 to 31/03/2026. All returns in GBP.
Top portfolio returns
Making his first appearance at the top of the table is Daily Mail Group’s Head of Wealth and Personal Finance, Jeff Prestridge. His decision to pick Seraphim Space Investment Trust has been richly rewarded. The space technology trust got off to a flying start this year and has proved remarkably resilient during the Iranian conflict. While all his other holdings are in negative territory, Seraphim’s performance has been strong enough to squeeze a 4.5% return from his portfolio in the year to date.
In second place, Peter Higgins saw all his holdings fall by double digits in March, but after a storming start to the year thanks to his heavy weighting to two commodities trusts, BlackRock World Mining and CQS Natural Resources Growth & Income, his portfolio is still only 0.5% in the red.
Last year’s winner, freelance personal finance writer Moira O’Neill, is in third with a 1.9% decline on her portfolio since the start of the year. Like Peter, she had a brutal month, falling by 12.4% in March. Given such a sharp decline it’s remarkable that her portfolio is down so modestly.
Top investment trusts
For the first time in the 15 months since we launched the AIC’s fantasy fund manager competition, every single trust lost value during the past month. The best performer, down only 0.5%, was Augmentum Fintech, held by investment trust specialist journalist Gavin Lumsden.
As the name suggests, Augmentum Fintech invests in relatively small, fast-growing financial technology firms – most of which (around 80%) are unlisted and therefore not subject to the knee-jerk selling on public markets.
Seraphim Space Investment Trust was close behind, dipping in value by just 0.7%, a drop in the ocean compared to its 25% gain since the start of the year.
Big tech has also shown its continued resilience, driven by an apparently unshakeable faith in the AI capex boom. The two major tech trusts, Polar Capital Technology and Allianz Technology Trust fell by a relatively modest 6.1% and 5.1% respectively.
Scottish Mortgage, the global trust with a heavy weighting to tech, performed even better, with a decline of just 3.8%.
The only certain thing about the coming weeks is that nothing is certain. Portfolios could recover or, if the conflict worsens, they could suffer more. But a word of advice: all of our most experienced trust managers maintain that investors should keep calm in times of turmoil. Don’t allow sharp price movements to scare you into selling. Markets tend to recover sharply as soon as a resolution is in sight. So try to avoid checking your own holdings every day, and remember investing is a long-term commitment.
Check in next month to see how our contestants are faring and good luck on your own investing journey!
Journalist | Investment trust | AIC sector | Share price total return (%) 1 month to 31/03/26 | Share price total return (%) YTD to 31/03/26 | Value of holding as at 31/03/26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Prestridge | Mercantile Investment Trust | UK All Companies | -10.95 | -6.80 | £2,330 |
| Scottish Mortgage | Global | -3.76 | 0.42 | £2,511 | |
| Seraphim Space Investment Trust | Growth Capital | -0.66 | 25.00 | £3,125 | |
| Temple Bar Investment Trust | UK Equity Income | -6.64 | -0.48 | £2,488 | |
| Total portfolio | -5.50 | 4.54 | £10,454 | ||
| Peter Higgins | BlackRock World Mining | Commodities & Natural Resources | -13.72 | 10.53 | £2,763 |
| CQS Natural Resources Growth & Income | Commodities & Natural Resources | -15.23 | 7.14 | £2,679 | |
| Rockwood Strategic | UK Smaller Companies | -14.52 | -11.30 | £2,218 | |
| Vietnam Enterprise Investments | Country Specialist | -11.76 | -8.43 | £2,289 | |
| Total portfolio | -13.81 | -0.52 | £9,949 | ||
| Moira O'Neil | Golden Prospect Precious Metals | Commodities & Natural Resources | -19.26 | -6.81 | £2,330 |
| Personal Assets Trust | Flexible Investment | -4.99 | -2.71 | £2,432 | |
| Schroder UK Mid Cap Fund | UK All Companies | -11.32 | -2.72 | £2,432 | |
| Templeton Emerging Markets | Global Emerging Markets | -14.16 | 4.47 | £2,612 | |
| Total portfolio | -12.43 | -1.94 | £9,806 | ||
| Holly Mead | Ashoka India Equity | India / Indian subcontinent | -12.27 | -19.85 | £2,004 |
| BlackRock World Mining | Commodities & Natural Resources | -13.72 | 10.53 | £2,763 | |
| International Biotechnology | Biotechnology & Healthcare | -4.12 | -8.30 | £2,293 | |
| Polar Capital Technology | Technology & Technology Innovation | -6.07 | 3.45 | £2,586 | |
| Total portfolio | -9.05 | -3.54 | £9,646 | ||
| Gavin Lumsden | Augmentum Fintech | Financials & Financial Innovation | -0.46 | 18.68 | £2,967 |
| Finsbury Growth & Income Trust | UK Equity Income | -7.83 | -11.19 | £2,220 | |
| Lindsell Train | Global | -7.72 | -15.38 | £2,116 | |
| RIT Capital Partners | Flexible Investment | -4.76 | -7.49 | £2,313 | |
| Total portfolio | -5.19 | -3.85 | £9,616 | ||
| Lynn Beattie | Alliance Witan | Global | -6.85 | -6.19 | £2,345 |
| Schroder Asian Total Return | Asia Pacific | -13.58 | 0.00 | £2,500 | |
| Allianz Technology Trust | Technology & Technology Innovation | -5.06 | -3.80 | £2,405 | |
| Henderson Smaller Companies | UK Smaller Companies | -13.85 | -7.12 | £2,322 | |
| Total portfolio | -9.84 | -4.28 | £9,572 | ||
All data to 31 March 2026. All returns in GBP. The information and trust selections are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or personal recommendations. The opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and not of the AIC. You should not make investment decisions based solely on this information and you should seek independent financial advice to identify investments that suit your own personal circumstances and needs. See our full terms of use.
Nick Gardner
Nick Gardner is an award-winning financial journalist. He is former Business and Personal Finance Editor of the Sunday and Daily Telegraph in Sydney, and Deputy Money editor of The Sunday Times in London. He was also Head of Content at Brewin Dolphin, the wealth manager.
