James Carthew: The UK’s most shorted investment companies

The FCA publishes disclosable short positions on UK stocks each day. A few closed-end funds appear on the list which makes for interesting reading.

The pound is sliding. This is hardly surprising given the state of the nation’s finances and the apparent sprouting of a magic money forest to fund tax cuts and energy price subsidies. Against this backdrop, I find it hard to be positive on the outlook for the UK market and it seems as though many investors agree as the UK is said to be the most shorted major market currently.

The FCA publishes a list of disclosable short positions on UK stocks each day and it makes for interesting reading. This article is based on the position at the close of business on 7 September.

The investment companies sector is not much affected by investors betting on a fall in target share prices, however a handful of names crop up.

Chrysalis Investments (CHRY ) features with a 0.7% short position. I have been looking at Jupiter’s growth capital fund as the share price discount has now ballooned to 56% against a net asset value (NAV) updated to the end of June. The fund managers’ focus has switched from identifying new investments to preserving value within the existing portfolio, and there is cash available to do that following the takeover of Embark earlier this year.

More of the portfolio is said to be achieving profitability and there are some decent businesses in there. We are waiting to see what will happen to the controversial performance fee – an announcement is expected soon. CHRY would likely rally if sentiment switched decisively back in favour of growth stocks, but a stock-specific move is possible too if one of its portfolio companies manages to float.

There is a 0.7% short position in Hipgnosis Songs Fund (SONG ) too. A recent Financial Times article painted a depressing picture, but some of the thinking in the piece looked a bit muddled to me. It laboured SONG’s inability to grow with the 22% discount preventing further share issuance, but that is no bad thing, I think. With a market value of £1.3bn the closed-end fund is already a decent size and a pause on expansion plans could be accompanied by lower running costs.

We should finally be able to see the proof of the investment case (or not) as the like-for-like revenue and profit growth picture becomes clearer. Also, the article questioned the 8.5% discount rate used to value the portfolio of song royalties. That is at the high end for funds valued on a discounted cash flow basis, and I would have expected that to be trending down, which should support the NAV. I am sticking with my holding.

Primary Health Properties (PHP ) seems a bit more unloved, with a 3.1% short position. It is trading on a sizable 12.6% premium to its 30 June adjusted net tangible assets per share. That alone might be the reason. However, investors may also be looking at the net initial yield on its portfolio of 4.57% and wondering whether this might start to rise (putting downward pressure on the NAV) in an environment of rising interest rates.

The company has a loan to value (LTV) ratio of 43%, equivalent to conventional gearing of 75%. At the end of June, the weighted average cost of PHP’s debt was 3%. Happily, 95% of that is on fixed or hedged terms for a period of just under eight years. A falling NAV would see the LTV ratio climb, but PHP says it is happy to operate with an LTV ratio of up to 50%.

Investors have a 1.1% short position in Tritax Big Box Reit (BBOX ). The logistics funds have sold off since Amazon announced that it thought it needed to rein in its expansion plans. BBOX is a third lower than its level at the end of April ahead of that announcement. It is important to remember though that Amazon is not the only player in town. The supply chain problems we have experienced over the past couple of years are encouraging a process of re-shoring of manufacturing and investment in extra inventory.

The trend towards retail ecommerce continues too. The fly in the ointment might be the looming UK recession, but that should also help curtail the supply of new space. BBOX trades on a 32% discount to its end-June NAV.

Lastly there is a 2.3% short position on uranium fund Yellow Cake (YCA) whose NAV is not published that often. Back on 12 August it stood on about a 12% discount to asset value with the shares up 20% since then, but the uranium price is only about 1% higher. The short might just reflect a view on the rally, therefore.

I recently spoke to Jean-Hugues de Lamaze, manager of Ecofin Global Utilities and Infrastructure (EGL ). He is enthused about the prospects for the nuclear sector as many governments recognise that nuclear offers much needed baseload power, looks less expensive in the context of current power prices and offers greater security of supply.

Geiger Counter (GCL ) is probably a better way of playing this than YCA, however. It holds miners rather than the commodity and is more of a geared play. Also, it is on a 9% discount.

James Carthew publishes research at QuotedData. Any opinions expressed by Citywire, its staff or columnists do not constitute a personal recommendation to you to buy, sell, underwrite or subscribe for any particular investment and should not be relied upon when making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions. In particular, the information and opinions provided by Citywire do not take into account people’s personal circumstances, objectives and attitude towards risk.

 

 

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