SpaceX could validate Scottish Mortgage private valuations

Reports that the rocket company is holding a tender offer at $112 per share, giving it a $210bn valuation, could help to close Scottish Mortgage's lingering discount.

Reports that SpaceX is holding a tender offer at a higher valuation could help to convince investors over private company valuations in Baillie Gifford’s Scottish Mortgage (SMT ) and Edinburgh Worldwide (EWI ) investment trusts.

Elon Musk’s space rocket and satellite company, which is the largest unlisted position in Scottish Mortgage and the biggest holding in Edinburgh Worldwide, is selling insider shares at $112, according to Bloomberg.

The higher-than-expected price values the company at $210bn, representing a 14% premium to the late-November $155bn valuation.

Scottish Mortgage, Baillie Gifford’s flagship £12bn global equity trust, reported the company’s valuation at $241.4bn in its recent annual report, but Matt Hose, an analyst at one of its two brokers, Jefferies, suggested the fund’s rounding of its disclosed ownership stake had made an impact and that the implied valuation was actually lower.

At the end of May, SpaceX accounted for 4.4% of the Scottish Mortgage portfolio and 11.9% of its £626m smaller-company global peer Edinburgh Worldwide, meaning a validation of their valuations could provide a boost to the shares.

The significant exposure that both funds have to private companies has weighed on their share prices, with unquoted companies making up 26.5% of the Scottish Mortgage portfolio and 27.8% of Edinburgh Worldwide’s. They respectively trade at discounts of 9% and 12%.

Ewan Lovett-Turner, an analyst at Scottish Mortgage’s other broker Deutsche Numis, said the tender at a higher valuation demonstrated the strong demand for SpaceX shares and its positive operational progress.

The company, which also owns satellite operator Starlink, launched 96 rockets in 2023, two-thirds of all commercial launches. In addition, its latest rocket, Starship, will have an unprecedented 150 metric tonne payload and is close to commercial launch.

‘It is more difficult to understand any direct valuation impact because Baillie Gifford has an active approach to valuation which seeks to reflect valuation information rapidly, and therefore may already be partly reflected in the net asset value. We calculate an implied valuation for SpaceX of $205bn as at 31 May, based on Scottish Mortgage’s carry value,’ he said.

The news comes hot on the heels of Tempus AI’s $6.1bn flotation earlier this month, which was in line with the Scottish asset manager’s valuation. Having listed on the US Nasdaq technology exchange at $37, the genetic tester has since tumbled 31.5% to $27.56.

Shares in Scottish Mortgage have rallied from a low of 621p a year ago to 883p at close on Wednesday, in part owing to its £1bn share buyback programme, though remain some way off their November 2021 peak of £15.29.

Edinburgh Worldwide has struggled at the smaller end of the spectrum, with the current 144p share price just ahead of its 122p October low. The new chair recently told shareholders the board was reassured Baillie Gifford was on the right track. 

Investment company news brought to you by Citywire Financial Publishers Limited.