Analysts question whether market has misjudged RIT Capital

The £3bn Rothschild-founded trust made strong gains but is being ‘excessively punished’ by a steep discount.

RIT Capital (RCP) posted a net asset value (NAV) gain of 13.5% for 2025 but continues to trade on a significant discount, which some analysts feel is unjustified. 

The £3bn trust, in which the Rothschild family has an around 20% stake, divides investments into three pillars: private investments, quoted equities, and uncorrelated strategies, all of which delivered double-digit returns over the period. 

The private sleeve led gains, up 18.3% and contributing 6.5% to overall NAV. Growth here was driven by SpaceX, now the largest private holding, following a ‘timely increase’ ahead of a major valuation uplift in the second half of the year. 

The trust made £232m from realisations over the period − the highest level since 2021 − including partial or full exits from Scale AI and fintech players Webull and Xapo Bank. It also initiated two new positions in artificial intelligence companies Anthropic and Databricks, to end 2025 with a 31.7% allocation to private investments, down from 33.4% the year before. 

Elsewhere, public equities returned 15% contributing 6.9% to NAV, as the manager shifted the focus away from North America toward the UK, Europe, and emerging markets. Meanwhile, its uncorrelated strategies returned 12.1% or 3.4% to NAV, buoyed by holdings in gold and absolute return credit managers.

RCP’s share price grew 16.9%, helping to narrow the discount from 30% in late summer to around 22.3% by the end of December. However, it has since widened back out to 26.3%.

Winterflood, which included the trust in its 2026 recommendations, said: ‘This is clearly a good moment for the fund. The private sleeve has been right-sized, realisations are strong and the pivot towards more concentrated direct holdings seems promising.’ 

Analyst Shavar Halberstadt believes RCP had been ‘excessively punished’ for its post-COVID Venture exposure, alongside other ‘strong trusts’ like Seraphim Space (SSIT) and Shiehallion (MNTN).

‘Now that the portfolio contains some of the most sought-after private names and they are delivering returns, perhaps some investors will revisit the steep discount the fund has been assigned (perhaps following the examples of SSIT and MNTN),’ he said. 

‘Amid global instability, we expect the diversified portfolio to appeal to investors, including its commodities exposure, and its lack of listed software.’ 

Peel Hunt’s Anthony Leatham similarly questioned whether ‘the market has got the more directional, higher-beta flexible trusts (most notably RCP and Caledonia (CLDN) wrong’, arguing ‘returns such as these should justify a narrower discount’.

‘RCP has delivered strong performance in the period with positive contribution from the key investment pillars including private investments, which we have argued forms part of the reason for RCP’s derating over the past four years,’ he said. 

‘We believe RCP’s portfolio is well-positioned and has benefitted from active management and we note the new investments made in Anthropic and Databricks, as well as increased exposure to SpaceX, in light of a potentially more receptive environment for IPOs and M&A in 2026.’

Analysts also highlighted the relatively low cost at which the fund operates a complex portfolio, and its substantial buyback programme. Last year, it spent £89m on the scheme and since early 2023, the figure comes to £332m or 11.2% of share capital. 

Painting the macro picture, chief executive officer and manager Maggie Fanari described ‘an unusually complex geopolitical and economic environment; one that presents quite an array of risks’.

‘Mindful of this, we have made adjustment to our positioning. We have a more diversified set of exposures, many at lower levels of valuation than is the case for the US. Our meaningful and closely managed exposure to uncorrelated strategies should provide further insulation,’ she said. 

The board has proposed a 4.7% increase in its 2026 dividend, marking the 13th consecutive year of growth. 

Investment company news brought to you by Citywire Financial Publishers Limited.