A successful strategy for different cycles

Alastair Mundy, Manager, Temple Bar

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The year always begins with Uncle Tom Cobley and all offering their 12-month forecasts for a number of major asset classes. The strategy of investing in out-of-favour companies and combining this with a focus on complementary assets that work well with equities in different times in the cycle has been a strategy that has been successful for us over the past 21 years.

The best value we see in the UK equity market going into 2015 is in the larger stocks in the market. Companies like HSBC, Glaxo, BP and Shell have performed poorly against the mid-cap companies over the last decade and we think finally things are changing with these very large companies. Rather than looking for acquisitions they are making disposals, reducing their non-core assets, cutting costs and we believe focusing on what is right for the shareholder. We think if mega-cap companies can shrink back to where they really have the strong competitive advantage, shareholders will be surprised at the amount of earnings growth these companies can deliver. They are on relatively low valuations already compared to some other smaller companies in the market, so we think that is what is going to drive performance.

Temple Bar is positioned increasingly towards the FTSE 100 companies, where we have a very large weighting. We have been reducing our weighting towards FTSE 250 companies over the last couple of years and this has continued in 2014. We also hold quite a lot of cash; not so that we can spend it if there is a small market fall, but to wait for some really fantastic opportunities or for individual stocks if they have profit warnings or fall significantly out of favour.

We think it is very important to focus on capital preservation at the moment, as we see a number of concerns around the world. These concerns range from geopolitical worries to fairly disappointing earnings growth for companies worldwide, and, of course, the end of quantitative easing in the US. All of these factors suggest that equity valuations should not be as high as they are.

So, what do we need if we think equity valuations are going to fall? We need some complementary assets such as gold, gold equities, Norwegian krone, cash and index-linked bonds, both US and UK. We cannot be absolutely positive that these complementary assets will rise if equity markets fall significantly, but we are hoping that they will dampen volatility if equity markets become more volatile.

Disclaimer

About Investec Asset Management

Investec Asset Management is a specialist investment manager, providing a premier range of products to institutional and individual investors. Employees are equity stakeholders in the firm. Established in 1991, the firm has been built from start-up into an international business managing approximately US$123bn* on behalf of third party clients. We have grown from domestic roots in Southern Africa and the UK to a position where we proudly serve a growing international client base from the Americas, Europe, Asia, Australia, the Middle East and Africa. We employ over 145 investment professionals. The firm seeks to create a profitable partnership between clients, shareholders and employees, and to exceed clients' performance and service expectations. Investec Asset Management is a significant component and independently managed entity within the Investec Group, which is listed in London and Johannesburg.

*as at end June 2014